ABNA24 - The war with Iran will last longer than Trump anticipated. If politics compel him to withdraw early, then he will do grave damage to our liberty and economy.
The average forecaster surveyed by Wall Street estimates that the price of West Texas Intermediate oil would have to rise to $138 a barrel to raise the risk of a recession to 50% or significantly boost inflation and unemployment. Economists' disruption estimates have not captured key supply chain breaks.
Oil represents about half the cost of gas at the pump when it sells for $3 a gallon. Consequently, gasoline prices should increase by about 25% if oil jumps 50%. If sustained, that’s enough to reduce real consumer spending by 1 percentage point of gross domestic product.
The president will be under terrible political pressure, and the danger is that he could recommit President Johnson’s Vietnam War mistake of pulling out early after achieving some initial victories.
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